Mumbai Metro Region Stuck with 2 Lakh Unsold Flats

New housing project launches down 47%, but commercial property turns around.

The housing market in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) has recorded its worst half yearly performance since the global fi nancial crisis of 2008. The MMR — a 4,355 sq km area comprising municipal corporations of Greater Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, Navi Mumbai and Ulhasnagar — had around 2 lakh unsold homes in the six months to June.

The last two-and-a-half years saw a continuous fall in launches and sales across Mumbai, the National Capital Region, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad. Mumbai, the most expensive property market in the country, saw a 47% drop in new housing project launches during the first half of the year.

bubble

Over the last two years, demand in Mumbai fell 30%, while launches plummeted nearly 70%. The luxury residential market with a price tag of over .₹ 5 crore per apartment has also run into rough weather and not seen any new launches in the last six months.

The residential market in central Mumbai and central suburbs posted a good growth from a year ago. In MMR, builders have been venturing into locations beyond Thane for affordable housing projects. Around 59% of new launches with a price tag below .₹ 25 lakh are in Kalwa, Kalyan, Dombivali and Ambarnath. Locations like Mulund, Kan- jurmarg and Chembur have seen big launches, contributing 28% of new launches in these six months.

The report also added that commercial property has turned around, driven by office space pick-up by companies in IT/ITeS, banking and financial services sectors. “We expect Mumbai to clock office transactions of 7.7 million sq ft during 2015,” said Samantak Das, chief economist and national director, research at Knight Frank India.

“Residential market is still reeling under tremendous pressure, with a drastic drop in new launches at the back of falling demand. The recovery of the residential market does not seem imminent until 2015 and we expect sales to be in the range of 63,000 units, which is marginally below the 2014 levels.”

Syngene International Limited IPO Review

Syngene International is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bengaluru-based Biopharmaceutical Company Biocon Ltd, which own 85.54% of stake in the company. Syngene is launching an Initial Public Offer of its equity.

Issue opens: Monday, July 27, 2015
Issue closes: Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Face Value – Rs.10
Issue Size – Rs. 5,280 million – Rs. 5,500 million
Price Band – Rs.240 to Rs.250
Bid Lot – 60 Equity shares and in multiples thereon.

Issue Offerings to Various Investors

• 10 million equity shares to be allocated to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs).
• Not less than 3 million equity shares to Non-Institutional Bidders.
• Not less than 7 million equity shares to Retail Individual Bidders.
• Reservation of upto 2 million equity shares reserved for Biocon Shareholders

Objects of the Issue:

1. Achieve the benefits of listing the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchanges;
2. Enhance visibility and brand image among existing and potential clients; and
3. Provide liquidity to the existing shareholders.

Historical Financials

Company revenues in the last four years has grown at a CAGR of 28%. Revenues as on March 2010 was at Rs 2,675 million and Rs 7,077 as on March 2014.

syengen ipo

Syngene has an experienced and qualified team of scientists across multiple disciplines. As of May 31, 2015, 90.6% of their scientist pool of 2,122 scientists had a Master’s degree or a Ph.D.
During the fiscal 2015, Syngene has serviced 221 clients including 8 of the top 10 global pharmaceutical companies by sales for 2014.

What’s in it for Biocon Ltd shareholders?

• Biocon after diluting its 11% stake in Syngene Ltd will receive all the proceeds from IPO, which will be in the range of Rs 5,280 – Rs 5,500 million considering the price band. Biocon will be using the proceeds for research & development purposes. Biocon ltd post IPO will continue to hold 74.54% stake in Syngene. 10% of issue size is reserved for Biocon equity shareholders.

• Post IPO Syngene will be valued at Rs 48 billion at the lower end of the band which is half of Biocon’s current market capitalisation, though Syngene contributes about 27% to Biocon’s consolidated revenue.

• Biocon had earlier given a revenue target for the group at USD 1 billion by FY18, with the Syngene contribution pegged at USD 250 million.

• Biocon shareholders will benefit if market gives higher valuation to the company post IPO.

Valuation and Investment Rationale

• Company’s EPS for FY14 earnings stood at Rs 6.74, which means P/E at the upper end of the band at 37x and at the lower end of the band at 35x.

• There is no listed company exclusively in similar business, hence there is no benchmark for valuations.

• Syngene International lt. has strong revenue growth story in last 5 years.Good profit margin makes this company valuable.Being a subsidiary to Biocon is added advantage.

• Good revenue growth in last 5 years.It has grown at 42 % CAGR, However in last 3 years,its revenue grown at 35% CAGR. Good profit margin of 18% to 19 % in last 3 years.

Mumbai property prices may crash as much as 50% : Ambit Report

A lethal cocktail of high prices, drying up of bank lending and government efforts to reduce black money may combine to produce what many have anticipated — in vain — for long : a crash in realty prices in the country’s metropolitan cities.

That is the takeaway from a research report put out by firm Ambit Capital, which says that a sharp correction in property is in the offing.

“Whilst the RBI’s Housing Price Index suggests that prices have moderated on a pan-India basis, data from property websites suggests a deeper slowdown in India’s large cities, with prices falling by 7-18% YoY,”

Black Money Bill went live on July 1 and has made high-net-worth families reluctant to invest in real estate. – The 8 percentage point gap between gross rental yield and bank base rate highlights the unattractiveness of real estate for investors.

Alongside this, a significant drop in transaction volumes has also been witnessed.

Mumbai suggest a sharp drop in the registration of new residential properties and data from property valuers in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu suggest that transaction volumes have fallen by 10-15 percent per annum for three consecutive years now.

Also, new launch volumes are down 40-80 percent on a pan-India level,”

realestate

The report concludes that in cities like Mumbai, prices “could halve” from current levels in order to arrive at a sustainable level. According to the report’s , the demand and supply factors that have together tightened their stranglehold on the already-stressed real estate sector in recent times include: – RBI data suggests that the banking system seems to have turned the tap off for property developers over the past year.

The NDA has cut subsidies sharply (down 9 percent in FY16) and is shifting subsidies to Direct Benefit Transfer. As a result, the ability of the politician-and-builder to pilfer subsidies to fund real estate construction has been checked. – The knowledge that there is many years’ worth of unsold real estate inventory in most of India’s tier-1 and tier-2 cities is causing investors to hold back further purchases.

prices in some pockets of Mumbai could fall about 20-25 percent. “Till now, builders had been reducing prices through indirect means such as the 80:20 schemes and interest free EMIs, but a direct price reduction is absolutely on the table now.

80 percent home buyers in India sulking

Real estate exclusive survey on customer satisfaction

The major concerns and dissatisfaction of the home buyers are

• Delayed possession.
• Poor construction quality.
• Customer service problem.
• Floor area and carpet area less than promised.
• Hidden cost of the developers.

8 out of every ten home buyers in the Indian cities are sulking with the unfair trade practices of the real estate developers

Only 20 percent of the buyers have received a defect-free home and timely possession.70 percent of the buyers repent investing their life-time savings in the house.

One in three buyers has either filed a case against the developer in the consumer court or planning to do so.

REAL ESTATE

Forty-three percent of those who filed a case against the builder have refused any out-of-court settlement in exchange of the builder’s promise of getting the home repaired.

Sixty-nine percent of buyers have serious issues with the facility management by the developer.

Two in three, are sulking the extra amount they paid in hidden cost of the property. Three in five, look at their home as more of a future investment than a place where they would like to spend the life by choice.

Among the double income families almost nine out of 10, are already looking for a better home and won’t mind disposing off the home that they so fondly bought within the last five years.

REAL ESTATE 2

These figures are an outcome of an exclusive survey conducted by ‘Track2Realty’ in 10 Indian cities, including the metros. The survey reveals that several home-buyers are angry at what they have been subjected to by the builders.

Due to the high handed attitude of the builders, it has become extremely difficult for the middle class to buy even a small flat in pune ,Mumbai, Delhi and other metros.

Atal pension yojna Review

Guaranteed Pension by Govt. of India

On 1st June the central govt has announced Atal Pension Yojana for all the bank account holders who are not the members of any social security scheme.

This scheme is basically designed for citizens in the unorganized sector weaker section of the society. People from the unorganized sector though because of their practical problems & compulsions do not provide enough attention towards saving to meet the requirements & problems of an old age. Those who are little bit aware of it & willing to save, for them appropriate financial institution (instead of some dubious credit cooperative societies) particularly for long term investments is equally important where their hard earn money will remain safe. On this background first time central govt has paid attention to this section of the society & tried to provide some assistance is also creditable even if it has some limitations.

Details of the scheme are as follows.

This scheme will be administered by the Pension Fund Regulatory Development Authority.

The scheme has age limit from 18 years to 40 years of age.

Initially the subscriber will have to select the amount of pension from the given option between Rs:-1000/- to Rs:-5000/- per month & accordingly shall have to pay a stipulated contribution which will be directly debited to his saving account.

Atal-Pension-Yojana-Contribution-Calculator

Subscriber can change the pension option (may increase or decrease) only once in the year i.e in the month of April ( beginning of the new financial year).

GoI will co-contribute to each eligible subscriber, for a period of 5 years who joins the scheme between the period 1st June, 2015 to 31st December, 2015. The benefit of five years of government Co-contribution under APY would not exceed 5 years for all subscribers including migrated Swavalamban beneficiaries.Option of exist before 60 years is not available.

Govt understands the financial difficulties of this sector & kept a practical view while dealing with issue of recovery date. Subscription can be recovered till the last day of the month to avoid any delay or default or late payment charges.
In spite of such flexibility even if delay or default happened late payment charges are minimum i.e.

Re:-1 per month for the contribution upto Rs:- 100/-

Rs:-2 per month for the contribution between Rs:-101/- to 500/-

Rs:-5 per month for the contribution between Rs:-501/- to 1000/-

Rs:-10 per month for the contribution above Rs:-1001

However subscriber voluntarily discontinues the payment Within 6 months from the date of account opening – his account will be frozen.

After 12 months from the date of account opening – his account will be deactivated.

After 24 months from the date of account opening – his account will be closed.

To start pension subscriber shall submit a request to his associate bank on completion of his 60 years of age.

pension

The pension will remain continue to the spouse even after the death of subscriber & after spouse’s death corpus will be returned to the nominee.

Subscriber’s of the existing swavalamban scheme open for the age group of 18 to 40 years will be automatically migrated to this scheme.

Though prima fascia this scheme appears good for the particular section of the society but as stated above it has some limitations.

Depending upon the contribution of the subscriber, below mentioned is a chart of the corpus will be accumulated at the age of 60 of the subscriber.

Subscriber opted a pension option of Rs:-1,000/- = Rs:-1,70,000/-
Subscriber opted a pension option of Rs:-2,000/- = Rs:-3,40,000/-
Subscriber opted a pension option of Rs:-3,000/- = Rs:-5,10,000/-
Subscriber opted a pension option of Rs:-4,000/- = Rs:-6,08,000/-
Subscriber opted a pension option of Rs:-5000/- = Rs:-8,50,000/-

Interest generated on this corpus shall be given to the subscriber’s in the form of monthly pension. If we take a close look on the return of investment it will be only 7.06% which is even significantly low than interest rates on recurring deposits in banks.

This scheme is designed for non taxpayers so tax benefit is neither available on the part of contribution nor on the amount of pension as it will be added to your income.

Last but certainly not the least important factor is of inflation even if we look at the average inflation history which hovers between 4 to 6.5% ( WPI ). Cost of living in urban India is certainly more expensive. So even if subscriber gets a monthly pension of Rs:-5000/- after 25 to 40 years of his investment (depending upon his age of enrollment) by the time what will be the value of that amount.

Active Vs Passive portfolio strategy

Actively managed funds are those where the fund manager decides which stocks to buy and when to buy or sell them. It also means that the fund manager tactically manages the portfolio. So when he sees upside in a sector, he may move into that or exit it altogether if he is of the opinion it could crash.

Since the aim of active management is to deliver a return superior to the benchmark, an actively managed fund offers the potential for much higher returns than the benchmark, providing the fund manager gets his calls right. If not, the downside could be much higher too.

In the case of passive investing, the fund simply tracks the benchmark. It invests in the identical sectors and stocks in the similar allocations of those of the benchmark.

What is tracking error?

Tracking error is a measurement of how much the return on a portfolio deviates from the return on its benchmark index.

Not all index funds are identical. Some track their benchmarks more closely than others. The amount by which a fund veers from the performance of the index it is trying to match is known as tracking error. For example, if an index gained 3% over a year, while a fund that tracks it gained 2.7%, the tracking error is 0.3% over that period.

The tracking error exists due to trading and management costs. It is all the more heightened when a fund doesn’t hold all of the securities in its benchmark. Then research and trading costs increase the expense ratio, which impacts the tracking error.

The lesser the tracking error, the more accurate the index fund.

active

What makes an index fund different?

In its simplest sense, an index fund is a fund that attempts to replicate the performance of a given index by duplicating its composition. Most index funds work by identifying an already well-known index, then building a fund that either owns every asset in the index or achieves the same end by holding similar securities.

For instance, HDFC Index Nifty tracks the Nifty and the portfolio consists of the 50 stocks that comprise the Nifty. While HDFC Index Sensex tracks the Sensex and its portfolio comprises of the 30 Sensex stocks. On the other hand, HDFC Index Sensex Plus aims at investing 80-90% of the net assets into stocks which comprise the Sensex, while the balance is left to the discretion of the fund manager.

A regular fund on the other hand will have the fund manager researching and picking stocks he believes have great upside. He will not restrict himself to the universe of the benchmark stocks, as in the case of an index fund.

Who is an index fund targeted at?

An index fund is targeted at first-time investors – those who are investing in funds for the first time and have no idea as to how other funds are positioned and how to select one from the hundreds available.

They are also targeted at those investors who are unconcerned with the relative performance of one company over another in terms of its stock price, and with beating the market in general. They are for investors who want to participate in the stock market, but don’t want their investment to dip below market returns. Hence they buy a fund that moves in accordance with the benchmark.

This is also for investors who want a low-cost exposure to the stock market. To use the earlier examples, the expense ratios of HDFC Index Nifty and HDFC Index Sensex are 0.56% and 0.49%, respectively. It goes up to 1.06% in the case of HDFC Index Sensex Plus to account for some amount of active investment. In the case of pure active funds, the expense ratio can go up to 2.50%.

Finally, investing in a fund like the above which will offer exposure to large-cap stocks, can be a good core holding for a portfolio.

5) How does an index fund differ from an ETF?

An exchange traded fund, or ETF, is a type of fund which owns the underlying assets (stocks or gold) and divides ownership of those assets into shares. For example, a Gold ETF will buy actual gold. It is for this reason that it serves as a proxy to investing in gold. Or, for instance, iShares, the world’s largest ETF provider, has an ETF called iShares S&P India Nifty 50 Index Fund, which tracks the S&P CNX Nifty Index.

In the case of an index fund, you can buy the units from the asset management company, or AMC, and sell them back to the AMC, based on the current net asset value, or NAV. In the case of an ETF, the units are listed and traded on the stock exchange. Which means that investors need to have a demat account to buy and sell ETFs. Unlike an index fund where the NAV is declared end of the day, an ETF could experience price changes throughout the day, depending on demand for the product.

While actively-managed funds carry fund manager’s risk—not just on the stock and sector selection, but also the risk of the manager quitting.Passively-managed funds don’t come with such risks. Passively-managed funds, such as index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), invest in all the companies, and in exactly the same proportion, that are there in the benchmark index they track.

Global brokerage house view on greece crises

CLSA

Process of setting a new bailout in place is fragile Aggregate Eurozone growth should not be much affected by the Greek Crisis Expect ECB to be very visibly backstopping government bond market Greece failing to pay €3.5 billion to ECB by July 20 may result in ELA being cut off Euro weakness main eco transmission route into dollar trading regions such as Asia India stands out if € does weaken further or faster than expectations Developments in Greece may not have big impact on US Fed policy Indonesia & India may benefit from implied easing in global liquidity.

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Jonathan Barratt, CEO & Chief Economist of Barrattsbulletin.Com

Pressure on brent is on the back of not just a sentiment change in terms of what will happen with Greece going ahead, it is also because of fundamental factors such as nuclear deal with Iran, which has the potential to affect supply. He adds that the pressure on crude oil is likely to stay as the geopolitical factors will continue to persist for some time.

Nomura

Political import of referendum makes prospects of deal even slimmer ECB unlikely to raise ELA ceiling this week July 20 bond repayment looming large without any prospect of resolution Verdict increases perceived risk of Greece exiting Eurozone.

Credit Suisse

Sell-off in European markets will be a buying opportunity Probability of a systemic crisis is just one in three Even with ‘no’ vote, chances of systemic crisis are 25%