Why is equity the most preferable long-term asset class?

It has been an eminent journey for the Indian mutual fund industry since now. The MF industry has made outstanding steps over the past few years. The investors have raised a substantial ₹1.3 lakh crores in equity mutual funds in 2017. But, the percentage of mutual fund assets in household savings is very less in India.

equity

According to the data from RBI, the percentage of mutual funds in financial assets is as low as 13%. The percentage of mutual funds will be even lesser if we add household savings in the physical assets, i.e., gold, petroleum, real estate etc. Even after the immense success of the Indian MF industry, the most selected choice for people is still bank deposits which are approx. 50% of the household financial assets.mutualSource: RBI

One can see that mutual funds savings are even less than 22% of the total bank deposits. The similar percentage in the US (United States) is around 101%. Moreover, almost the top 60 district of India hold the immense percentage of the mutual fund industry AUM. Except for those districts, the penetration of mutual funds in household savings in remaining part of India is appallingly less. One of the numerous reasons behind the low penetration of mutual funds in the country is the deficiency of financial awareness.

Risk factor

Doubtlessly equity is an uneasy and unpredictable asset class. There are sudden fluctuations in the stock market and this is called volatility. If you have invested in equity and your investment generally makes more hike in up-markets than it drops in down-markets, then it is a sign that your probability of getting impressive results are very high than of suffering loss over long investment tenure which is very low.

Mutual funds reached to 21% of total bank deposits

Performance in 5 years

The time period of five years, i.e. from 2014 to 2018 covers uncommon market conditions. 2014 was a year with a rising price. It was the year with a bull market with Lok Sabha elections and BJP coming to authority. 2015 was a good year stock market-wise having a correction worldwide as well as in India. 2016 started with a significant drop within the first 2 months, followed by an improvement. 2017 was a contrary year to a bull market. 2018 started with a volatility period of 3 months in the market, and since then the market is mostly seen as range-bound.

Different asset class

In this exploration, BSE-100 is taken as the proxy for the equities. BSE-100 symbolizes the large-cap province of stocks. Large-cap stocks hold the immense majority of overall market capitalization in the stock markets. CRISIL Composite Bond index represents the long-term i.e. more than 5 years, medium i.e. 3 to 5 years and short-term i.e. 1 to 3 years fixed income investment. CRISIL liquid fund index represents very short-term fixed investments i.e. less than a year and this index is similar to the savings bank.

Performance in 2014

2014Source: CRISIL, BSE, Goldprice.org

As mentioned 2014 was a year with a rising or a bull market year. All the asset classes performed well in 2014 except gold. And BSE-100 was outperformed.

Performance in 2015

20141Source: CRISIL, BSE, Goldprice.org

2015 started amazingly for equities but there was a great rectification in the month of March and there was high volatility in the stock market for the rest of the 9 months period with a downward bias. Predictably, equity not performed so well in such market-conditions but still is the best performer if we combine the 2014 and 2015 performance of all asset classes.

Warren Buffett that may help you to create wealth in long-term

Performance in 2016

2016Source: CRISIL, BSE, Goldprice.org

2016 started with under-performance by equity, driven mostly because of the slowdown in economy on the back of dropping prices of crude oil. But the stock market made a recovery in the month of March and maintained it or the remaining year.

Performance in 2017

2017Source: CRISIL, BSE, Goldprice.org

2017 was the great year for the stock market. Equity performed exceptionally well in 2017 and after the under-performing period of 2 years, BSE-100 provides more than 30% returns.

Performance in 2018

2018Source: CRISIL, BSE, Goldprice.org

2018, as many investors know, saw a lot of volatility and the market has been range-bound over the last few months. Let us how different asset classes have performed so far this year.

Large-cap equity vs. mid and small-cap

According to the data, mid-cap and small-cap stocks have dropped 20% to 30% in 2018. Even though mid-cap and small-cap funds are capable enough to provide high returns in the long-term period but large-cap funds and stocks are less volatile than them. Large-cap funds deliver balance to the investment portfolio and these funds should contain the core of the portfolio.

Conclusion

CONCLUSIONSource: CRISIL, BSE, Goldprice.org

Equity seems to be the worst performing asset class in 2018 but the outstanding performance between the period of 2014 and 2017 ensures that equity shows itself as the best performer over the entire period.

 

Note : Past performance of fund does not guarantee the future returns.

Mutual Fund Investment are Subjected to Market Risks, Read all Scheme Related Document Carefully.

Disclaimer: No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor before making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here.

What are Indian Bond Fund Managers Purchasing Despite Inconstancy?

A rapidly increasing trade war and an escalation-focusing RBI (Reserve Bank of India) is thrusting the local fund and money managers into low-risk and shorter debt securities. Take a look at their plans and what they said about it –

Choose the 3-year segment

Mahendra Jajoo, Head of India Fixed-Income (Mirae Asset Management)

  • “The most appealing segment is the three-year segment because after that there are a lot of riskiness and challenges to face.”
  • The most beneficial thing about the three-year segment is that if you are to manage in a situation where you predict that the macros are somewhat risky and uncertain, but probably have ended being worse, what you think you do in that situation? I things started being worse from here, then you are not freaking out much because, at the very end of 3 years, you will get the capital back.

DEBT

Being defensive is a good option

Lakshmi Iyer, Chief Investment Officer for Debt (Kotak Asset Management)

  • “As there are a plenty of riskiness and uncertainties regarding policy decisions and macros, make your portfolio defensive. By being defensive, I mean purchasing two or three-year sovereign bond i.e. short-duration.”
  • “Short-end of curve provides the most comfort at this point. The delta risk to take for maturities which are long-term is not equivalent to the available return.”
  • She said that she suggests state bonds of the same duration rather than AAA and sovereign bonds.

Want to invest your FD proceeds in mutual funds? Here is how to do it

Liquidity is the key

Suyash Choudhary, Head of Fixed Income (IDFC Asset Management)

  • “Target on sovereign bonds and AAA bond is extremely sharp this year as does not desire illiquidity risk.”
  • “Shifted to standard paper as much as possible. Want to be as much AAA as possible.
  • Stop disclosure to some of the less-rated bonds in some of the portfolios between frights of refinancing shocks.
  • “Government bond return curve is very precipitous until five years and then very flat after that.”
  • The noted correlative value in front-end of the return curve- mostly 4 to 6 govt. bonds, which is the core excessive holding.

Accrual & liquid funds

 Killol Pandya, Head of Fixed Income (Essel Finance)

  • Stick to the briefest possible end of the duration curve like accrual, ultra short-term funds, and liquid.
  • September-October is the month of fund cut duration. Have not included it yet.
  • Wish that investors constantly move towards liquid funds else it will turn out to be a mistake.

What are Dynamic Funds? ( Video )

Upmost corporate paper

 R Sivakumar, Head of Fixed Income (Axis Asset Management)

  • Suggests short-end bonds which are less than 5 years tenor in sovereign and also the corporate space because they provide more value. Prefers AAA-rated paper above sovereign bonds.
  • Sees a more combative RBI and an upright number of rate hikes proceeding.
  • Does not see any onward remarkable selloff in sovereign bonds with markets being much more stable.

Shorter-maturing liabilities

 Rajeev Radhakrishnan, Head of Fixed Income (SBI Mutual Funds)

  • “Rates are only predicted to go up in the upcoming seven to eight months, would be properly conservative in position over a period, liquidity.”
  • “Credit spreads- corporate returns vs. govt. bonds- are fixed and probably remain so in the very near term because of demand and supply issues.”
  • The fund’s portfolio is suddenly changed toward shorter-maturity AA & AAA note, he said.
  • Probably there will be two or three more rate hikes as per recent pricing followed by relatively long pause after that. Additional policy action is on the cards with clarity.

 

DISCLAIMER

No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here.

Want to invest your FD proceeds in mutual funds? Here is how to do it

Most individuals can’t think beyond bank deposits when it comes to deploying their savings. However, fixed deposits do not pay much, and the interest is added to the income and taxed as per the Income Tax slab applicable.

This is the main reason why many investors investing in debt mutual funds instead of parking money in bank deposits. Debt mutual funds may offer market linked returns, which could be marginally higher than bank deposits.

If invested with a horizon of more than three years, debt mutual funds may offer better after-tax returns. Investments in debt mutual funds held over three years are taxed at 20 percent with indexation benefit. The indexation helps to bring down the actual taxes to a single-digit in an inflationary scenario.

graph2

If you are investing for less than three years, both bank deposit and debt mutual funds are taxed similarly. Returns or interest would be added to the income and taxes as per the income tax slab applicable to the investor.

If you would like to explore debt mutual funds, here is some help.

Point to note: there are several kinds of Debt mutual funds. You should choose a scheme that matches your investment horizon and risk profile.

Liquid Funds are very low-risk funds. They invest in highly liquid money market instruments. They invest in securities with a residual maturity of upto 91 days. Investors can park money in them for a few days to few months. These funds may offer marginally higher returns than bank deposits.

For eg. Portfolio of Aditya Birla Sun Life Floating Rate ST

Download (PDF, 113KB)

Floater funds are mostly invest in floating rate instruments. These schemes will invest at least 65 per cent of the total asses in floating rate instruments.

For eg. Portfolio of Kotak Floater ST
 

Banking and PSU funds are predominantly invest (80 percent of assets) in debt instruments of banks, public sector undertakings and public financial institutions.

For eg. Portfolio of ICICI Prudential Banking PSU Debt

Manage your portfolio and enter into the next level of your financial status

Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs) are a good alternative to fixed deposits for investors in the higher tax bracket. These are closed-ended debt mutual funds with defined maturity. FMPs usually invest in securities which match their tenure and follow buy and hold till maturity strategy. This makes it free from interest rate risk. An FMP may match the yield offered by its portfolio constituents with minute deviations. FMPs also have credit risk, which means that its returns will be hit ..

For eg. Portfolio of Reliance FHF XXXV S16

Download (PDF, 116KB)

Short-Term Funds invest mostly in debt securities with an average maturity of one to three years. These funds perform well when short-term interest rates are high. They are suitable to invest with a horizon of a few years.

For eg. Portfolio of Franklin Templeton Franklin India Low Duration

Download (PDF, 116KB)

Dynamic Bond Funds have an actively-managed portfolio that varies dynamically with the interest rate view of the fund manager. These funds invest across all classes of debt and money market instruments with varying maturities. They are ideal for investors who want to leave the job of taking a call on interest rates to the fund manager.

For eg. Portfolio of IIFL Dynamic Bond

Download (PDF, 88KB)

Income Funds are highly vulnerable to the changes in interest rates. These funds invest in corporate bonds, government bonds and money market instruments with long maturities. They are suitable for investors who are ready to take high risk and have a long-term investment horizon. The right time to invest in these funds is when the interest rates are likely to fall.

For eg. Portfolio of Baroda Pioneer Dynamic Bond

Download (PDF, 82KB)

Mutual fund Strategy: Time to invest in accrual and short-term bond funds

Credit Opportunities Funds are the debt funds which invest in corporate bonds and debentures of credit rating below AAA. The idea is to invest in low-rated securities with strong fundamentals which are expected to see a rating upgrades in the future, benefiting the portfolio and investors. These funds involve high credit risk. A default or a downgrade in a rating of the scheme’s portfolio holdings may hit the returns badly. Their portfolio consists government securities and T-Bills ..

For eg. Portfolio of IDFC Credit Opportunities

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Gilt Funds invest in government securities. They do not have the default risk because the bonds are issued by the government. However, these funds are highly vulnerable to the changes in interest rates and other economic factors. These funds have very high interest rate risk. Only investors with a long-term horizon should consider investing in them.

For eg. Portfolio of HDFC Gilt Short Term

Download (PDF, 82KB)

Debt-oriented Hybrid Funds invest mostly in debt and a small part of the corpus in equity. The equity part of the portfolio would provide extra returns, but the exposure also makes them a little riskier than pure debt schemes. Investors with a horizon of three years or more can consider investing in them.

For eg. Portfolio of Tata Retirement Savings Conservative

Download (PDF, 96KB)

 

RATING

Note: Past performance of fund does not guarantee the future returns.

Mutual Fund Investment are Subjected to Market Risks, Read all Scheme Related Document Carefully.

Disclaimer: No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor before making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here.

 

Fact sheet of Women fund managers who have outperformed or Underperform over the long-term

Women still constitute only 8 percent of the total number of fund managers in the Indian mutual fund sector but have proved their mettle by delivering significant outperformance.

Altogether 24 women managers manage funds currently, either as primary or secondary managers or as heads of equity or fixed income, compared to 18 last year.

Cumulatively they manage assets worth Rs 3.065 trillion, which equals 15 percent of the total assets under management (AUM) for open-end funds.

The total AUM managed by the women managers has increased in absolute terms, compared to Rs. 2.32 trillion last year.But regarding a percentage of overall AUM, the number remained almost the same as last year.

The number of women in fund management in India has been gradually going up over the years, but the numbers tell us that we still have a long way to go. Many Asian countries have among the highest representation of women in the mutual fund industry.

womens day

61 percent of the AUM managed by women fund managers in India outperformed the benchmark/peer group average over the past one year, 81 percent over past three years, and 86 percent over the past five years, according to the Morningstar report.

Thus, over the long term, funds managed or overseen by women fund managers have delivered significant outperformance based approach. Depends on collective input from investment specialists closest to the source of investment information.

Some women fund manager’s ignored the noise around and proved that career progression isn’t dependent on the gender.

A look at some Women Fund Managers.

Mrs. Swati Anil Kulkarni ( Fund Manager at UTI Asset management.)

Biography

Mrs. Kulkarni is a B.Com (H), MBA (Finance). From Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies, Mumbai, CFA and a CAIIB. Prior to joining UTI Mutual Fund in 2004, she has worked with Reliance Industries Ltd.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. Nevertheless, over a long track record, the manager has, period by period, consistently managed to outperform the peer group.

Download (PDF, 100KB)

Ms. Roshi Jain ( Fund Manager at Franklin Templeton Asset management.)

Biography

Ms. Jain is a CFA, ACA and PGDM. Prior to joining Franklin Templeton Investments she has worked with Goldman Sachs, London,Goldman Sachs, Singapore, Wipro Ltd. and S. R. Batliboi & Co.

Summary

Overall, performing better than the peer group composite. Over a long track record, the manager has, period by period, consistently managed to outperform the peer group.

Download (PDF, 101KB)

Ms. Jahnvee Shah  ( Fund Manager at Reliance Asset management.)

Biography

Ms. Shah is a B.Sc and an MBA (Finance). Prior to joining Reliance Mutual Fund she has worked with Financial Express.

Summary

Overall, performing worse than the peer group composite. Over a fairly lengthy track record, the manager has underperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 96KB)

Ms. Bekxy Kuriakose  ( Fund Manager at Principal Asset management.)

Biography Ms. Kuriakose is a BA (Economics) from Delhi University and PGDM from IIM, Bangalore Prior to joining Principal MF she has worked with L&T MF, Reliance Life Insurance Co. Ltd ,SBI Mutual Fund and Tata Administrative Services.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. However, over a long track record, the manager has, period by period, consistently under formed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 102KB)

Ms.Priyanka Khandelwal ( Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential Asset management.)

Biography Ms. Khandelwal is Chartered Accountant and Company Secretary She has been Working with ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Since October 2014.

Summary

There is an insufficient track record to make any judgment.

Download (PDF, 81KB)

Ms.Payal Kaipunjal ( Fund Manager at Reliance Prudential Asset management.)

Biography Ms. Kaipunjal is an MBA. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs she has worked with Benchmark AMC.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. However, over a long track record, the manager has underperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 101KB)

Ms.Nidhi Chawla ( Fund Manager at SBI Asset management )

Biography Ms. Chawla holds BBS degree and has also done MBE and CFA. She has over 4 years of experience in mutual fund industry. She is with SBI Mutual Fund since 2007.

Summary

Overall, performing worse than the peer group composite. Over a short track record, the manager has underperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 90KB)

Ms.Shalini Tibrewala  ( Fund Manager at JM Asset management.)

Biography Ms. Tibrewala is a B.Com (H), ACA and CS. She has been associated with JM Financials since 2003.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. However, over a long track record, the manager has underperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 108KB)

Ms.Sunaina da Cunha ( Fund Manager at Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset management.)

Biography Ms. Cunha is a B.Com (H) and MBA from FMS, Delhi. Prior to joining Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company, she has worked with Aditya Birla Management Corporation Ltd.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. Nevertheless, over a long track record, the manager has, period by period, consistently managed to outperform the peer group.

Download (PDF, 100KB)

Ms.Ranjana Gupta  ( Fund Manager at SBI Asset management.)

Biography

She is a Commerce graduate from Mumbai University Ms Ranjana joined SBIFMPL in 2008 as Fixed Income Dealer and has over 21 Years of experience in the capital market. prior to joining SBIFMPL, She was heading the broking activities at Twenty-first Century Shares and Securities Ltd from May 1995 to February 2008. She started her career as a dealer in 1995 with OTCEI.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. However, over a short track record, the manager has underperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 90KB)

What are the Reasons Behind Most Women not Having a Health Insurance Cover?

Ms.Sohini Andani ( Fund Manager at SBI Asset management.)

Biography

Ms. Andani is a Commerce Graduate and C.A. She has over 15 years of experience in financial services. Prior to this, she worked with ING Investment Management Pvt. Ltd., ASK Raymond James & Associates Pvt. Ltd., LKP Shares & Securities Ltd., Advani Share Broker Pvt. Ltd., CRISIL, and with K R Choksey Shares & Securities Pvt. Ltd.

Summary

Overall, performing better than the peer group composite. Over a fairly lengthy track record, the manager has outperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 96KB)

Ms.Meenakshi Dawar ( Fund Manager at Reliance Asset management.)

Biography Ms. Dawar is a B.Tech from IGIT New Delhi and PGDM from IIM Ahmedabad. Prior to joining Reliance AMC had worked with IDFC Mutual Fund. She has worked in institutional equities sales and research division on the sell side.

Summary

Overall, performing worse then the peer group composite. Over a fairly lengthy track record, the manager has underperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 96KB)

Ms.Khushboo Sharma ( Fund Manager at IDFC Asset management.)

Biography

Ms. Sharma is B.Tech, Post Graduate Diploma in Management (Finance) & CFA Level III Prior to Joining IDFC Mutual Fund she has worked with Franklin Templeton Asset Management India Pvt. Ltd. in Fixed Income Investment Management and Evaluating company Credit and Structured finance deals and has also worked in Thoughtworks Technologies India Pvt. Ltd. in Software Consulting.

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Gargi Bhattacharyya Banerjee ( Fund Manager at Shriram Asset management.)

Biography

Ms. Banerjee is Master of Business Management in Finance and Bachelor of Science with Economics (Hon) from University of Calcutta. Prior to joining Shriram Asset Management Co. Ltd she has worked with Zacks Research Pvt Ltd as Research Head and Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd.

Summary

Overall, performing worse then the peer group composite. Over a short track record, the manager has, period by period, over- and under-performed roughly equally.

Download (PDF, 85KB)

Ms.Hetal P Shah ( Fund Manager at Baroda Pioneer Asset management.)

Biography

Ms. Hetal P. Shah is a B.Com, MBA, and JAIIB. Prior to joining Baroda AMC she has worked with Bank of India from may 1999.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. However, over a long track record, the manager has underperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 105KB)

Ms.Bharti Sawant ( Fund Manager at Mirae Asset management.)

Biography

Ms. Sawant is an M.S. Finance ( ICFAI Hyderabad ), CFA and B.Com. Prior to joining Mirae AMC in September 2013, She was associated with Sushil Finance Securities Pvt. Ltd., Latin Manharlal Securities Pvt. Ltd. and Kabu Shares and Stocking Pvt. Ltd. for Financial Analysis and Research.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. However, over a short track record, the manager has underperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 93KB)

Ms.Anju Chhajer ( Fund Manager at Reliance Asset management.)

Biography Ms. Chhajer is a B.Com (H) and a Chartered Accountant. Prior to joining Reliance Mutual Fund Ltd. as a fund manager, she has worked with National Insurance Company as a Money Maker Instruments and D.C Dharewa & Co.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. Nevertheless, over a long track record, the manager has outperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 103KB)

Mrs.Suman Prasad ( Fund Manager at Canara robeco Asset management.)

Biography Mrs. Prasad is B.Sc and PGDMS. She has been associated with Canara Robeco since 1996.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. Nevertheless, over a long track record, the manager has outperformed the peer group.

Download (PDF, 103KB)

Real estate rental yield is below one percent

Ms.Chandni Gupta ( Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential Asset management.)

Biography She holds B.E. degree in IT and CFA degree from CFA Institute, USA. She is working with ICICI since October 2012 as Fixed Income Dealer. Prior to that, she has worked with Morgan Stanley, HSBC Bank and Standard Chartered Mutual Fund.

Summary

Overall, performing about the same as the peer group composite. However, over a short track record, the manager has, period by period, over- and under-performed roughly equally.

Download (PDF, 101KB)

Ms.Uma Venkatraman  ( Fund Manager at IDBI Asset management.)

Biography Prior to joining IDBI Mutual Fund, she had worked with B&K Securities, ASK Raymond James, Morgan Keegan and UTI Mutual Fund.

Download (PDF, 79KB)

Ms.Pushpa Rai ( Fund Manager at Escorts Asset management.)

Biography

Ms. Pushpa Rai is a M.Com, MFM (Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies) Over 20 years of experience in the financial sector on both, fixed income products as well as equity markets. Previous assignments include Heading Debt funds and managing pension funds, surplus funds with IDBI Capital Market Services (March 2007 – Feb. 2010); Heading Debt and Equity Research at
Mata Securities (Sep 1995 – April 2006).

Download (PDF, 87KB)

Note : Past performance of fund does not guarantee the future returns.

DISCLAIMER

No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here.

Mutual fund Strategy: Time to invest in accrual and short-term bond funds

The RBI in its bi-monthly policy review yesterday kept the repo rate unchanged at 6% and continued with the neutral stance.

The investors should stay away from long term bond funds and go for accrual funds and short term funds.

Here is what experts say :

Amit Tripathi, CIO – Fixed Income Investments, Reliance Mutual Fund

The tone in the policy was very balanced. The RBI is more focused on medium term drivers of growth and inflation, and wants to support the nascent recovery. The markets are pricing in many risks that RBI highlighted in its policy. Given RBI’s pragmatic approach and current market levels, one can expect some near term stability in bond yields, which have been very volatile of late.

The overall macro resilience of the economy remains high. However, we are clearly no longer in a rate easing cycle. Investors should prefer moderate duration portfolios with reasonable carry (accrual) for the bulk of their fixed income allocations.

R.Sivakumar, Head-Fixed Income, Axis Mutual Fund

We expect long bond yields to be range bound. However, the lack of a negative is not a positive, and even at current levels, we do not see value in long bonds given the duration risk involved.

Short rates have also sold off in recent months, with the 1-year certificate of deposit now yielding about 7.5% (compared to 6.5% in November). The entire short end of the curve (1-5 years) now appears to have “overpriced” the risk of tight liquidity and RBI policy stance. We see better value in this segment. Moreover, as the broad macro economy improves, we are also seeing improvement in corporate earnings, which is positive for corporate bonds – especially in the non-AAA space. 

Investors with a medium term holding horizon should look to short and medium term funds, while those with a short-term holding period should consider liquid and ultra-short funds.

Debt market

Pankaj Sharma, CIO- Fixed Income, DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund

In lines with market expectations, RBI has kept rates unchanged and maintained the neutral stance. The status quo on rates and a neutral stance indeed reflect a repeat of the balanced tone as witnessed in the December MPC. That said, we believe that macro variables have moved towards the negative territory over the past 2 months as factors like crude oil, yields in developed markets moving higher, fiscal slippage on the domestic front and prospects of change in MSP mechanism do not augur well for interest rates to head lower.

Hence, we maintain a bias for reversal in the interest rate stance sooner than later. Bond yields have been pricing the same and this policy for now will resist hardening of yields from current levels.

From a market perspective, the outcome of the policy is in line with market expectations and hence the immediate reaction is relatively muted.

Lakshmi Iyer, CIO (Debt), Kotak Mutual Fund

The bond markets in India have been witnessing significant volatility lately. The 10-year G – sec yield has risen from the low of 6.37 percent in the month of Jan 2017 to 7.52 percent as of date.

By any count, this is a major bear grip on the market. The bond market has been wary on two counts — One is the rising CPI inflation and the second is the slipping fiscal deficit.

The market was slightly circumspect in light of fiscal slippage and was expecting a stern stance. In contrast, the RBI came with status quo accompanied by a milder stance. This came as a sign of relief for an excessively bearish market. We believe that the central banker’s policy stance would be increasingly data driven and were the crude prices to behave favourably; we may be in for a long pause.

Know more About P/E Ratio and its Significance

We believe that markets globally and in India may witness intermittent bouts of volatility in the bond market. Investors thus can utilise tactical asset allocation strategies to benefit from rising opportunities in the debt market.

Relatively high accruing yields and limited NAV volatility make a strong case for investment in accrual/short-term fund segment. For those seeking to lock into current yield, levels could look at allocation to fixed maturity plans (FMPs).

Bottomline, the policy statement has put a lid on to the markets ultra bearish imaginations and going forward global and domestic data points would be watched for by policymakers as also market participants.

Kumaresh Ramakrishnan , CIO-Fixed Income, DHFL Pramerica Mutual Fund.

“We expected a very cautious tone in the policy document and not expecting a rate hike anytime soon. We had expected the policy document to refer to the slippage in fiscal numbers as stated in the budget announced on Feb 1”

He also says that investors looking to invest in fixed income can go for short term debt funds as they will have low volatility. Investors who are willing to take a bit of risk may go for accrual funds.

“Investors who are completely risk-averse or wish to take the minimum risk possible may go for Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs),

Existing Investors in long term debt funds should revisit their portfolio and allocate a part of their corpus to short term debt funds.

Since a rate hike cannot be ruled in the coming months, investing in long-term debt funds doesn’t make sense anymore. A rising interest rate scenario is bad news for debt funds, especially long-term debt funds, because of the inverse relationship between yield and prices.

Dwijendra Srivastava, CIO-Debt at Sundaram Asset Management Company
10-year benchmark government securities (G-Sec) closed at 7.53%. “Given the current situation we foresee a rate hike in the next financial year. But the quantum of the rate hike and when it would be announced is difficult to predict at this point of time.” He also added that the 10 year yield will continue to remain in the range of 7.4% – 7.6% in the next few months.
 
Note : Past performance of fund does not guarantee the future returns.

Mutual Fund Investment are Subjected to Market Risks,Read all Scheme Related Document Carefully.

Disclaimer: No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor before making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here.

The biggest worry for global financial markets is China

China is the 2nd largest economy in the whole world and carries substantial economic hit with its trading partners. However, the slight fall in China’s equity market on 23rd November 2017 has set a fret in financial markets of China.

China Blue-chip stock index, CSI 300 had experienced its worst downfall in 17 months on 23rd of November. CSI 300 index fell by 2.93% as the market became worried about rising bond yields and PBoC deleveraging campaign.

CHINA

The current year, China’s bond yields have risen by 93 bps and are trading at 3-year highs. The sharp rise in China bond yields specifies the government’s determination to control corporate debt, which involves them in a talk that Chinese economy could fall in the coming future.

                                                        China CSI 300 Index

CSIThe top stock on Hang Seng was WH Group Ltd which stood up 1.69% and the stock which suffered loss was AAC Technologies Holdings Inc which sustained a downfall of 4.24%.

The 3 biggest H-shares percentage decliners were China Pacific Insurance Group Corporation Ltd which had a downfall of 4.73%, New China Life Insurance Corporation Ltd which has 4.7% and China Merchants Bank Corporation Ltd down by 4.1% while the biggest stocks which perform well were China Minsheng Banking Corporation Ltd which stood up 2.41%, Great Wall Motor Corporation Ltd which gained 0.98% and China railway Construction Corporation Ltd who stood up 0.77% in the Chinese financial market.

                                                China 10 Years Bond Yields

BONDSThe CSI 300 index is moving smoothly by 3.3% and closed down at 3% which is its biggest loss since June 2016 i.e., within 17 months. The ChiNext Index stood down by 3.2% which is its highest downfall in 4 months. The other two stocks, i.e., Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index fell more than 2% that day.

Three finance lessons for your child

According to the report, China’s five years corporate bond yields had risen by 33 bps in November 2017, which has hit a three year high of 5.3%. In China, there is more than 1 trillion dollar of local bonds which are going to get matured in the coming year 2018-2019, therefore, it is going to be expensive for these firms to roll over financing.

 

Know the Portions of Your Rs.100 Bank Deposit.

In all the noise about rising bad loans, a deposit deluge in the aftermath of demonetization and the collapse of credit growth, it’s time to take stock of where public funds are lying right now in the economy.

In a report from the Reserve Bank of India, the credit-deposit ratio as of the month of May was 72%, which means that out of Rs.100 deposited in the bank, Rs.72 used for lending and the rest Rs.28 was used to buy government bonds. In the same time of the previous year, banks have used Rs.76 out of Rs.100 deposit for lending and had left the rest Rs.24 in bonds. This is as per the stock of deposits on the 30th of the month.

1001Source : Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy

Taking a look at the additional credit-deposit ratio, which shows what portion of the new flow of deposits, is getting placed in the credit. And this reflects the slump in credit growth in 2016-17.

By the time of March-end the additional credit-deposit ratio was 42%, this shows that more than half of the deposits that came in were placed in government bonds. These are low-yielding and very safe assets. This could be easily understood by the fact that the deposit stream following the demonetization of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 currency bills left a little choice to the banks to buy nothing but the government bonds as the loan demand is very less. Moreover, during the demonetization period, this was even lesser in the month of November, it was 1% only which aroused to nearly 13% in the month of December.

Trouble in India’s Credit System of banks having foremost NPAs

Now, if we talk about the month of May where the credit-deposit ratio was 72%, the large amount of share is still placed with industry through the loans accompanied by credit to services as well as individuals.

Share/Portion of Rs.100 Deposited

Out of every Rs.72 lent, nearly Rs.17 only went to personal loans and services each, and approximately Rs.28 or 29 went to build or run the factories. A share of Rs.10 went to agriculture. The share of personal loans has aroused in one year to approximately 25% of total non-food credit from 21%. On the other side, the industry has dropped to 38% from 41% while farming maintained its portion of nearly 14%. Basically, only Rs.25 of every Rs.100 deposited in a bank comes back to the people in the form of loans like home loans, car loans and other credits.

It is known that the banks are burdened with a big heap of bad loans. Approximately Rs.14 of every Rs.72 lent is now classified as stressed portion, which means it neither originate any income for the banks or due to the late payments by the borrowers to lenders.

What are the Long-Term Debt Funds and How to use It?

The long-term bond fund is the simplest type of debt and is varied across various kinds of fixed income tools and is usually meant for long-term investments only. Perhaps, it has a common structure but making money out of it is a bit tricky.

What is it about?

A long-term bond fund is meant for investors who wish to make money over the long term, typically over a period of 3-5 years. Like we have always said, debt funds are to be chosen based on your investment tenure.

The average maturity of these funds is in excess of 3 years most of the times.

bonds1

A long-term bond fund invests in a mix of corporate bonds and government securities (g-secs).

There are two types of long-term funds. One type of funds stay invested in long-tenured bonds and G-secs. The other type of funds are dynamic funds.

In a falling-interest-rate scenario, their average maturities go up to around 7-10 years. When interest rates rise, they stock up lower-tenured instruments and keep the portfolio’s average maturity low.long term bonds

Long-term bond funds are meant to provide you more return than the bank fixed deposits. And if held for longer time period, say more than 3 years, the returns are also tax efficient. These funds can give 8 to 10% returns over a 5 year time period.

But it’s not always as easy as it seems. Due to holding for long time period, these funds can get volatile when there are ups and downs in the interest rates of the economy. Also, in an assisted rising interest rate rule, long-term bond funds give moderate results as they can’t sell long-holding bonds and change to shorter holding bonds.

Amtek auto MF Holdings

According to a research analysis of a chain of 5 year returns over the previous 10 years, debt funds have returned 2 to 12% returns. That’s a broad range, but a lot also depends on your fund manager.

Dynamic bond funds are more volatile. Here, your fund manager may extend or minimize the fund’s average maturity extremely depending on his perspective of the interest rates.

For example, as per Crisil, RDBF (Reliance Dynamic Bond Fund) raised its average maturity period from 12.86 years to 13.49 years in 2016 as to set a standard security, 10 year g-secs’ production went down to 6.24% from 7.78%. When the 10 year production rose to 6.96% in April 2017 from 6.51% in December 2016 then in the same time RDBF’s average maturity fell to 9.69% from 12.22%.

Moreover, long-term bond funds were one of the few authentic debt funds when there were very few debt funds available in the market. There were great chances for the long-term investors to originate long-term income with minimal instability. But changing with the time, there are short-term funds and corporate bond funds that have proliferated providing similar income originating chances but with much less instability. Although, If one wants to stay invested with long-term bond funds for about 5 years or more to get better results, then substitutes like balanced funds and large-cap funds could give better results to you.

DISCLAIMER

No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here.

Is your MF holding an Adani power Debenture ?

The Indian Rating agency Crisil specified and accused Adani Power Ltd. of not proving the details of operations of the company for the rating action while conforming again its stable stance towards the company and BB- rating (3 scores below the investment point). Crisil said the bank loan facilities of Rs.6559 Crores are specified as non-cooperative. Also, it said that it is based on the ultimate information which is available as the Adani Power Ltd. has not provided the required information essentially needed to perform the rating action.

adani power

Crisil said that ‘the lenders, investors and all other market entrants should practice due caution while making use of the rating evaluated with the suffix ‘issuer not cooperating’. These ratings lack a progressive element as it is showed at without any management interaction and is based on the ultimate available or limited or dated facts and figures of the company.’

adani

Why Tata Group stocks are not attracting Mutual Funds anymore?

The investors must not take it at a face value. Including short-term and long-term loans Adani Power Ltd. has a total debt of approximately Rs.54000 Crores.

Following the Supreme Court judgment, Adani Power had to overturn Rs.3650 Crores of CT (compensatory tariff) in FY17 booked on the Mundra power plant of the company, on pass through of hike in Indonesian coal prices.

Amtek auto MF Holdings

Adani Power which could not be in the position to do any comment recorded company’s profit of Rs.1,012.19 Crores in the comparison of a net loss of Rs.4960.53 Crores.

In the recent past weeks, it is like downgrades are becoming a basic part of debt mutual funds’ investments and this is making the investors with low-risk appetites to take care of their selection of investments. Recently, the rating companies have issued the downgraded ratings to IDBI Bank BSE 0.33% and Reliance Communications and the Oriental Bank of Commerce and the latest one that includes in this list is Adani Power Ltd.